Holiday Spending Trends 2026

Consumer spending during the 2025 holiday season demonstrated remarkable resilience, with a record number of shoppers hitting stores and online platforms despite ongoing economic challenges like inflation. This surge sets the stage for strategic planning in 2026, as retailers adapt to bifurcated spending patterns, rising tech influences, and evolving preferences.

Record-Breaking Shopper Turnout Signals Confidence

A staggering 202.9 million Americans participated in shopping from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday in 2025, marking an increase from 197 million the previous year. This uptick, reported by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics, underscores sustained consumer confidence even as everyday expenses remain elevated.

Retail sales in December grew over 4%, with gains across most categories, highlighting the U.S. consumer’s ability to prioritize holiday essentials. However, big-ticket items saw deprioritization as budgets shifted toward gifts and seasonal items.

Economic Bifurcation Drives Diverse Behaviors

The holiday period revealed a clear divide in spending habits. High-income consumers maintained steady purchases in luxury segments, while lower- and middle-income groups hunted for bargains to manage stretched budgets. Placer.ai noted that retailers offering gifts under $100 saw early successes, as deal-focused shoppers extended their dollars.

Inflation impacted 86% of shoppers, prompting 69% to engage in deal-seeking actions like price comparisons across retailers. Younger generations particularly expanded their shopping destinations to find value.

Deal-Seeking Becomes the Norm

Sharp pricing emerged as a critical lure, with U.S. retailers heavily discounting to boost online demand. Adobe Digital Insights highlighted early Black Friday surges driven by competitive deals. Walmart’s CFO observed wallets stretched toward necessities over discretionary items, predicting restrained spending in 2026.

• 35% of consumers plan to cut discretionary spending in the next year.
• Only 24% expect to increase it.
• Simon-Kucher forecasts a potential late-2025 surge followed by caution.

Seasonal decor softened as consumers reused past items, reflecting broader frugality.

Social Commerce and AI Reshape Purchases

Social media’s role exploded, with 15% of consumers buying directly via platforms like TikTok and Instagram during holidays—up over 2% from prior years. An additional 28% used social for gift inspiration.

AI propelled $3 billion in Black Friday online sales, achieving conversion rates eight times higher than social referrals, per Salesforce. These tools, from personalized recommendations to AI agents, enhanced retailer efficiency and consumer convenience.

Wellness Gifts Gain Momentum

Health-focused presents, including wearables, fitness trackers, and home equipment, surged. Mastercard’s SpendingPulse reported 30% year-over-year growth since mid-2023, with 22.5% of such spending holiday-tied last year—up from 18% in 2018.

This trend aligns with proactive wellness interests, tracking sleep, exercise, and biometrics via devices like rings and watches.

Payment Strategies Reflect Caution

Shoppers favored debit and cash to control spending, but credit cards and buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) options persisted for rewards or stretched payments. Bread Financial’s survey showed strategic use of financing amid inflation.

• 86% affected by inflation.
• 69% sought deals.
• Multi-channel shopping by younger demographics.

Projections for 2026 Retail Landscape

NRF forecasts 2.7%-3.7% retail sales growth in 2025 over 2024, with steady holiday levels for 53% of consumers and increases for 22%. Into 2026, expect continued price sensitivity, value hunts, and judicious financing as employment stabilizes.

Emerging factors like GLP-1 drugs may reduce spending in food/alcohol by 4-6% but boost wellness/travel categories.

Popular Holiday Purchases

Gift cards topped wish lists at 53%, followed by clothing/accessories, media, and personal care. These reflect practical, versatile gifting amid budget constraints.

Implications for Retailers

Retailers must emphasize value messaging, loyalty perks, and omnichannel presence. Supporting small businesses and health niches could capture niche growth. AI integration for personalization will differentiate leaders.

With 202.9 million shoppers setting records, preparation for a divided yet resilient market is key.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

How many shoppers participated in 2025 Thanksgiving weekend?

202.9 million, up from 197 million in 2024.

What drove Black Friday online sales?

AI tools generated $3 billion, with high conversion rates.

Will inflation continue affecting 2026 spending?

Yes, 86% of 2025 shoppers reported impacts, likely persisting.

What are top 2026 holiday trends?

Deal-seeking, social commerce, AI, and wellness gifts.

Which payment methods dominated holidays?

Debit/cash for control, with strategic credit/BNPL.

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Author

Sneha TeteBeauty & Lifestyle Writer

 

Sneha is a relationships and lifestyle writer with a strong foundation in applied linguistics and certified training in relationship coaching. She brings over five years of writing experience to fundfoundary,  crafting thoughtful, research-driven content that empowers readers to build healthier relationships, boost emotional well-being, and embrace holistic living.

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